Let’s make a deal: If my NFL Week 14 ThriveFantasy Picks help win you some money, can we please stop talking about Mike Tomlin as coach of the year? Seriously.

Steven Sims' emergence headlines our fantasy football wide receiver rankings for Week 17 of the 2019 NFL season. 2019 at 12:56am Getty. Dallas has allowed an average of 16.24 points to the. Arizona has allowed the fourth-most fantasy PPG to slot receivers since Week 10 (21.9) and the fifth most on the season (16.54), according to NFL.com’s Michael Florio. They also rank dead-last.

I’m going to give you my NFL Week 14 ThriveFantasy Picks either way. But I actually had someone try to tell me today that Tomlin was the AFC Coach of the Year. And I understand the argument, but I just don’t agree with it.

At least the individual making this argument started in a very rational manner. To paraphrase he said he knew many would probably argue for John Harbaugh or Bill Belichick. And that’s not my argument, but he was right. But he then went on to talk about all the talent that the Steelers lost this year. Because last time I checked, they acquired Minkah Fitzpatrick, one of the best moves made this season.

Meanwhile, they lost a petulant prima donna distraction at wide receiver. Their 37-year old quarterback who had thrown 13 or more interceptions each of the last four years and seemed to have trouble winning on the road was lost to injury. They saved literally millions of dollars in cap space not resigning Le’Veon Bell, who is averaging barely over 3.2 yards behind a lesser offensive line.

The front office has done an incredible job in Pittsburgh. And the reason the Steelers continue to win is that the same front office has managed to continually acquire talent. The Steelers continue to win in spite of Mike Tomlin. Yes, Tomlin finally won a challenge this year but that’s exactly the point. He doesn’t know when, how, or where to challenge.

Can you name one good team that Pittsburgh has beaten this year? The best team they beat this year is the Rams, at home in Pittsburgh. But it seems people don’t know what is good coaching and what isn’t. So the “theme” for my NFL week 14 ThriveFantasy Picks centers around some of the more high profile coaches this week.

2019 NFL Week 14 ThriveFantasy Picks

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Grab ‘Em

So one of the most talked-about coaches this year is Sean McVay who some people are saying should be fired. Are these people out of their minds?

If the Steelers are going to keep Tomlin after some lean years, the Rams would be foolish to even entertain the thoughts of letting McVay go.

However, some of the talent they have they might want to reconsider. And that starts with their starting quarterback.

Jared Goff, Rams 22.5 Completions – 110 Points – UNDER

Let’s set the baseline first: Goff is averaging 23.6 completions a week. Yet if we throw out the extreme outlier 45 completion day against TB, that average drops to 21.6. Even if we balance it out by also throwing out his two lowest completion days against the Bears and 49ers, his average completion rate is still below 23 completions, or right around this week’s line.

Now, let’s apply some facts. Seattle is allowing just under a 64% completion rate. This means that Goff is going to have to attempt 36 passes in order for him to hit that 23 completion mark. Will he do that? Let’s dig a little deeper.

The Rams are 7-5. In the Rams five losses, Goff is averaging 43.8 attempts. In their seven wins, Goff is averaging 33.4 attempts. I think it is safe to say McVay’s game plan will not be to have Goff throw the ball 30+ times.

I’ll take the additional ten points as something tells me McVay puts the ball in the hands of Todd Gurley. Which is why I am also going to take….

Todd Gurley, Rams 84.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards – 100 Points – OVER

Perhaps this was the Rams plan all along. Rest Todd Gurley until the playoff push.

I’ve been cheating a little bit here because we already know Gurley is going to see more carries this week. Why? Because Sean McVay is not an idiot:

Sean McVay was asked what’s changed with Todd Gurley getting more touches

“Me not being an idiot.” https://t.co/mQB6Oq02TC

— Cameron DaSilva (@camdasilva) December 4, 2019

I think he goes way over these numbers, but lets conservatively give Gurley 15 carries and 4 catches. I was tempted to use his career averages, but instead let’s use this the averages from this disappointing year, which are 4.2 yards per carry and 6.1 yards per catch. Some quick multiplication…..that’s 87 yards. Well, that’s the over, and remember our estimates were conservative.

Given that Seattle is giving up a weekly average of more than 22 fantasy points to RBs, I’m feeling confident that Gurley can hit the over here. But we are not done with McVay yet. Let’s talk about when Seattle has the ball.

Russell Wilson, Seahawks 282.5 passing + rushing yards – 100 Points – UNDER

Originally I was going to go with the OVER because I’d rather bet on Russell Wilson than against him. I was originally thinking like 225 passing yards and 60 rushing yards. But Wilson has yet to rush for 60 yards in a game this season. Furthermore, he’s he had two games of 50+ rushing yards, yet every other game is 32 rushing yards or less.

So let’s give him a generous 40 yards. He still needs another 243 passing yards. That’s a lot to ask from a quarterback playing for Pete Carroll, And you know ol’ Petey loves to run the ball. Despite the MVP-like year that Wilson is having, Seattle is still third in the league in rushing attempts.

Meanwhile, I think McVay doesn’t want this to become a shootout between Goff and Wilson, so he’ll slow the play pace down. And Carroll will gladly match that pace. Therefore, I just don’t think Wilson gets enough attempts to get that much yardage. Throw in the fact that the Rams are in the top 12 in preventing QB fantasy points, it just makes more sense to take the UNDER on Wilson here.

The next thing I am about doing might be one of the risky plays I’ve made all year–I am going to bet agaisnt Bill Bellichick.

Travis Kelce 75.5 receiving yards – 110 points – OVER

Yup, I think Bill Bellichick will have a hard time keeping Travis Kelce in check.

But I’m not alone in that. Checking our buddy Bob Lung’s Consistency Ranking tool, he too recommends taking the over.

Meanwhile, Kelce is averaging 76.9 yards per game. In addition, he’s coming in on a nice little streak with three games of 75+ yards. The last time he saw less than seven targets was middle of October. Kelce doesn’t fail to haul it in too much and he’s averaging 13+ yards per catch. So if he catches six passes, he should be able to top 75 yards.

All of that, plus add the 10 point bonus? I’ll take that.

Of course, I think Bellichick finds a way to get his offense back on track too. Which is why I’m going to go aggressive and take

Julian Edelman, Patriots .5 receiving TDs – 120 points – OVER

One thing for the record, of all the WRs with TD prop bets on ThriveFantasy this week, I like DJ Moore the best.

But let’s focus on Edelman for now. I’m going to turn this over to our friends over at PFF….

Perhaps somewhat quietly, Edelman has played like a high-end WR1 for much of the season. He ranks third in XFP per game (17.7) and fifth in fantasy points per game (17.1). Running 68% of his routes from the slot, he draws an exploitable matchup in Week 14. Kansas City ranks best in fantasy points per game allowed to outside wide receivers (11.2), and third-best in fantasy points allowed per target (1.4). However, against slot wide receivers they rank 10th-worst in fantasy points per game (14.9), and third-worst in fantasy points per target (2.2).

Good enough for me. I’ll take Edelman, who has seen double-digit targets for the last six weeks, to score. Hopefully, I’m right and this is just one of many picks I get right on the NFL Week 14 ThriveFantasy slate. Because Tomlin love is out of control.

Check out the rest of our 2019 Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers.

Fantasy Points Allowed To Slot Receivers 2019 Draft

Cole Beasley probably hasn’t received enough credit for his play this season. And no, I do not mean in his normal way, where he comes up big on third downs or something and is more valuable to his real-life team than in fantasy. I mean for what he has done as a fantasy asset this season. He went off for a season-high 28 fantasy points against the Niners last week. That was his second game with over 27 fantasy points in the past three weeks, and his third over 22 in the past six games. He has also scored over nine fantasy points in all but two games, showing that he comes with a safe floor each week. But the higher ceiling is what is new here. He is on pace for his first 1,000-yard season and is becoming a weekly WR3 or flex option in front of our eyes. Well, that is until he plays the Steelers this week, right? Wrong! The Steelers are still a tough matchup to wide receivers, but nothing like they were last season.

On the year, they are giving up the 11th-fewest fantasy PPG to WRs (34.62), but that is not why I like Beasley this week. It’s because the Steelers have struggled to contain slot receivers and as we all know, Beasley is a slot receiver specialist, running 89 percent of his routes from the slot. In the fantasy regular season, the Steelers allowed the fifth-most fantasy PPG to slot receivers at 15.63 per game. That includes an average of 72.9 yards per game and six touchdowns. Given the matchup, I expect fantasy managers to get away from Beasley this week, but I think the opposite. Look for Beasley to step up and potentially even be the top target as the Steelers lock in on stopping Stefon Diggs.

Philip Rivers, QB, Indianapolis Colts

Philip Rivers has been playing good football as of late. Since Week 6, Rivers is the QB13 in fantasy averaging 18.41 fantasy PPG. He has fewer than 16 fantasy points in just one of those games and over 19 in four of those. He’s also thrown for multiple passing touchdowns in each of the last three games. This week, he faces a Raiders defense that has given up the 10th-most fantasy PPG to QBs this season (19.26). They’ve allowing over 20 fantasy points to a QB in six of their last nine, including over 20 to Sam Darnold last week. Rivers is more of a QB2 with some upside this week but some QBs I would start him over are Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins and Cam Newton.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

Nothing against Carson Wentz, but I have been hoping to see Jalen Hurts as a starting QB since before the NFL Draft. Hurts is one of the best rushing QBs in the NFL as he rushed for 1,298 rushing yards at Oklahoma in 2019. To put that into context, Kyler Murray rushed for 1,001 yards in 2018 at Oklahoma. Hurts out rushed him by nearly 300, but its not like he can’t pass either. He threw for 3,851 yards and 32 touchdowns, to just eight picks in his senior season. In a small sample size, he completed five of his 12 pass attempts for a TD and INT, while rushing for 29 yards on five carries in the second half against the Packers. He gave this team a spark and will get the start cause of that. The Eagles offense can’t struggle any worse than it had been with Wentz, but Hurts brings a higher fantasy ceiling because of his legs. This week, he has a tough matchup against the Saints, but he is a QB2 with upside due to his rushing ability.

Andy Dalton, QB, Dallas Cowboys

This is a big-time revenge game! Andy Dalton was once the face of the Bengals franchise but now he is just an opponent. That sounded like a football version of a Drake lyric. But, revenge is not the only reason Dalton is a sleeper. The Bengals defense plays a role in that, as they have allowed 23 passing touchdowns to QBs this season, tied for the eighth-most in the NFL. They’ve also allowed a top seven fantasy QB in three of their past seven games, showing that QBs can rack up points against this defense. You are not starting him over a proven fantasy QB, but if you have been streaming Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, or have Cam Newton in a tough matchup, Dalton is a pivot for you this week.

Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams

Last week was the breakout game for Cam Akers that we have waited for all season. He played 62 percent of the snaps, the most a Rams RB has played in any game this season and finished with 94 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. While this was the best game yet, its not like its just a one-week thing. Akers has seen nine carries inside the 10-yard line since Week 11; the rest of the Rams RBs have just one. Those opportunities have led to Akers scoring a touchdown in three straight games, which has led to his fantasy points increasing in each game. The question is no longer should we hold onto Akers, it is now: should we start him? This week against the Patriots may scare some people away, but given what we have seen in recent weeks and how it has trended to this point, Akers can be started this week. He is a low-end RB2 or flex option in Week 14.

Ty Johnson, RB, New York Jets

Frank Gore suffered a concussion in Week 13 and Ty Johnson stepped up in his absence. Johnson scored 19.7 fantasy points, the most any Jets RB has scored in a game this season. In fact, it was just the second time they had an RB in the top 15 in fantasy points. Over the last month, the Seahawks have allowed the sixth-most fantasy PPG to RBs (28.25). That includes nearly five catches per game, and if the Jets are trailing, we could see a few dump offs go Johnson’s way. Look, Johnson is not a Top-10 RB or anything like that, but if you need a sleeper, Johnson could potentially be in line for around 20 touches in a good matchup. You can do a lot worse if looking for a sleeper to elevate into your starting lineup.

Duke Johnson, RB, Houston Texans

With the Texans receiver depth very much in question, Duke Johnson stepped up in the passing game last week. Johnson caught all six of his targets for 24 yards, while David Johnson saw just two targets, not catching either. The two backs split snaps, with David playing one more than Duke. I had hopes that Duke would get used in the slot or out wide, but that did not come to fruition, not yet at least. But the six targets out of the backfield still stand out. A target is about three times as valuable as a carry in PPR leagues. Johnson can once again rack up five-plus catches this week. He is more of a deeper league option but, if you need to nab someone off the waiver wire and elevate them into your starting lineup, Duke is an option for you this week.

Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

The entire Chargers offense disappointed last week against the Patriots. Mike Williams has fewer than 10 fantasy points in three of his last four games, showing that it wasn’t just the one week. But, do not give up on him just yet. Williams has still seen seven-plus targets in four of his last six games, including at least five in all of those games. He is routinely seeing multiple targets of 20-plus air yards each week, and that could lead to some production this week against the Falcons. Atlanta has allowed 19 catches of at least 20 air yards this season, which is tied for the sixth most in the NFL. Additionally, they have allowed the second-most fantasy PPG to the position (43.06). They’ve also allowed the second-most yards per game to the position (207.9). This is a prime spot for the Chargers offense to bounce back and that includes Williams. He is a WR3 or flex option with upside this week.

DJ Chark Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Fantasy Points Allowed To Slot Receivers 2019 Nfl

D.J. Chark disappointed in Week 13, reeling in only two catches for 41 yards, but he did have a team-high seven targets. While he disappointed in a good matchup last week, he gets an even better one this week against the Titans who are allowing the third-most fantasy PPG to WRs this season (42.77). Just last week, they allowed the Browns to finish with three Top-20 fantasy WRs. The Titans have also allowed 19 completions of 20-plus air yards this season, tied for the sixth most in the NFL. That includes seven touchdowns on those passes, tied for the third highest in the NFL. Chark just had four targets of 20-plus air yards last week from Mike Glennon. Given that the opportunity is there and he now has a favorable matchup, Chark has the ability to catch a deep pass or two this week. He is definitely boom-or-bust, but given the matchup, he is a high-upside flex option this week.

Fantasy Points Allowed To Slot Receivers 2019 College Football

Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys

Dalton Schultz put up a solid 8.4 fantasy points against the Ravens, showing that he comes with a safe floor weekly. He has not scored below seven fantasy points since Week 8, which may not sound like much, but we are talking about tight ends here. In that span, he has averaged 9.68 fantasy PPG, good enough to make him the TE12. This week, he faces the Bengals who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy PPG to tight ends (16.13), including a league-high 68.5 yards per game to the position. The Bengals also just allowed 23.8 fantasy points to Mike Gesicki last week. If you have been streaming tight ends, Schultz is a nice option this week.

Fantasy Points Allowed To Slot Receivers 2019 2020

Seahawks DEF

Seattle had plenty of defensive struggles early on, but have been more useful in fantasy as of late. In fact, they have finished as a Top-12 defense in three straight games. Just last week, they finished in the Top-10 against the Giants. This week, they face the Jets who are scoring a league-low 15.0 PPG this season. The Jets have allowed a Top-10 fantasy defense in six of their last seven games. Seattle is a sneaky defense this week.